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Sign InAn official ceasefire between the United States and Iran was announced on April 7, and it remains technically in effect despite widespread reports of its extreme fragility. This follows President Trump’s decision to de-escalate military rhetoric after significant oil price spikes and subsequent stock market volatility. While the administration asserts its military objectives have been met, it has shifted focus toward threatening heavy tariffs on entities supplying Iran as a tactical alternative. Market analysts characterize the current situation as a fragile truce, further complicated by ongoing Israeli military activities in the region. This transition from military threats to economic pressure reduces the immediate risk of a full-scale war but maintains a geopolitical risk premium on global commodities. Investors remain cautious as they monitor the sustainability of this calm and its impact on energy supplies.