ForexHigh ImpactUpdated×27•Originally published 13 April 2026•Updated 14 April 2026•

1 min read

Oil Prices Surge Past $102 Amid Hawkish Fed Expectations as USD/CAD Holds Flat

Key Facts

1Peace talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan collapsed over the weekend.

2Donald Trump threatened a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude oil prices up by 8%.

3Demand for the US Dollar returned as geopolitical risk premiums were reinstated by traders.

WTI crude oil remains supported above $102 per barrel following reports of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. This geopolitical shift has decreased demand for safe-haven assets, allowing AUD/USD to extend its gains as risk appetite returns to the market. European currencies also posted solid gains due to a reallocation of capital flows toward risk-sensitive instruments, pressuring the US Dollar Index (DXY) down to 98.20. Consequently, EUR/USD has managed to consolidate its position above the 1.1750 breakout zone. While market participants monitor the sustainability of this ceasefire, attention remains on Federal Reserve policy cues and resistance levels for GBP/JPY. Despite the greenback facing intensified pressure, investors continue to weigh geopolitical developments against long-term interest rate expectations.

5 months ago

Version History

23 additional sources confirmed this story

Version 275 months ago

Version 265 months ago

Version 255 months ago

What changed: The story was updated to include reports of a specific two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, highlighting the subsequent boost to risk-sensitive assets like AUD and European currencies.

Version 245 months ago

What changed: Updated the story to include the impact of a fragile ceasefire on risk premiums and oil price sustainability.

Version 235 months ago

What changed: Updated to reflect the US Dollar Index breaking below 98.50 and EUR/USD holding above the new 1.1750 breakout zone.

Version 225 months ago

What changed: Updated the narrative to reflect the softening US Dollar Index testing 99.00 and included new technical levels for EUR/USD and GBP/JPY.

Version 215 months ago

What changed: Oil prices surged past the $100 mark to reach $102.08 due to physical supply disruptions in the Strait, pushing US 10-year yields to daily highs.

Version 205 months ago

What changed: Updated oil prices nearing $100, added context on Pakistan-hosted talks, and included price action for Gold, Silver, and USD/JPY.

Version 195 months ago

What changed: Updated the narrative to reflect the stalling of US-Iran negotiations after a temporary breakthrough, resulting in a bearish opening gap for European currencies.

Version 185 months ago

What changed: Updated to include the impact of upcoming US-Iran talks, stabilization in Silver prices, the pause in NZD/USD recovery, and technical support levels for USD/CAD.

Version 175 months ago

What changed: The story was updated to include the bullish forecast for EUR/USD above 1.1800 driven by intensifying risk-on sentiment.

Version 165 months ago

What changed: The story was updated to include specific CPI forecasts (1.0% monthly surge) and identify the DXY's critical technical support level at 98.50.

Version 155 months ago

What changed: The story was updated to include the sharp surge in US CPI data and the inflation risks linked to the Strait of Hormuz affecting GBP/USD and the DXY.

Version 145 months ago

What changed: Updated the narrative to include the failure of US-Iran peace talks and the weakening safe-haven momentum of the US Dollar despite geopolitical escalation.

Version 135 months ago

What changed: The narrative shifted from easing oil supply fears to a surge in oil prices, with hawkish Fed expectations now actively offsetting the impact on the USD/CAD pair.

Version 125 months ago

What changed: The narrative shifted from a total collapse of talks to a potential diplomatic breakthrough following Trump's comments and reports of a second round of negotiations.

Version 115 months ago

What changed: The story was updated to include the impact on the Canadian Dollar, which saw the USD/CAD pair break below the psychological 1.3800 level as CAD benefited from the oil surge.

Version 105 months ago

What changed: The US Dollar reversed its strengthening trend to hit a six-week low, allowing the EUR/USD pair to recover and extend gains despite the ongoing oil supply disruptions.

Version 95 months ago

What changed: Updated the story to reflect that actual physical supply disruptions have commenced, moving beyond previous threats, necessitating a headline and body update.

Version 85 months ago

What changed: Updated the report to include specific technical details regarding the EUR/USD recovery stalling at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (1.1750).

Version 75 months ago

What changed: Updated to include the impact of energy-driven inflation on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook and the resulting strength of the US Dollar.

Version 65 months ago

Version 55 months ago

Version 45 months ago

What changed: Added technical price levels and market sentiment for the EUR/GBP cross-pair to provide broader forex market context.

Version 35 months ago

What changed: Updated to include technical price action for GBP/USD and USD/CAD, noting specific resistance levels and potential breakout setups.

Version 25 months ago

What changed: The EUR/USD pair has shown a technical recovery, rebounding toward 1.1700, which contrasts with the previous downward pressure caused by safe-haven USD demand.

Version 15 months ago

What changed: Updated the narrative to include specific technical focus on the USD/JPY pair approaching the 160.00 resistance level driven by safe-haven USD demand.