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Sign InPresident Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire agreement via Truth Social to initiate peace negotiations between the US and Iran, triggering a 15% slump in oil prices as risk premiums eroded. However, the USD/INR pair has recently recovered as market skepticism emerges regarding the durability of the geopolitical truce, reversing some of the Indian rupee's prior gains. In Asia, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained interest rates at 5.25% while downgrading growth forecasts due to regional conflict impacts. US equity markets responded positively, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording their longest winning streaks since October 2025. Market participants are now shifting focus to Islamabad, where high-level peace talks are scheduled to take place over the weekend. While the "fear trade" has started to unwind, investors remain cautious regarding the potential for a lasting diplomatic resolution and its impact on global currency stability.