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Macro EconomyUpdated×3•Originally published 13 April 2026•Updated 14 April 2026•

1 min read

March Inflation Forecast to Hit 3.4% as Consumer Spending Pressures Mount

Key Facts

1Headline CPI moved higher as energy prices surged following the escalation of the Iran conflict.

2Core inflation has remained stable despite the upward pressure from the energy sector on headline measures.

Recent economic data revealed that Core PCE inflation stood at 3% in February, matching analyst expectations. Concurrently, personal spending rose by 0.5% despite a 0.1% decline in personal income, causing the personal savings rate to drop to 4%. Attention is now shifting to the March Consumer Price Index (CPI), with forecasts suggesting a jump to 3.4%. This outlook is further pressured by new UBS data indicating that March saw the largest increase in global energy inflation in 25 years, driven by geopolitical conflict involving Iran. This divergence between falling income and historic energy price shocks highlights persistent inflationary pressures that could complicate the Federal Reserve's price stability goals. Markets remain on high alert for official data to gauge the future trajectory of monetary policy amid these escalating risks.

4 months ago

Version History

1 additional source confirmed this story

Version 34 months ago

What changed: Updated the story to incorporate UBS data regarding a historic 25-year spike in global energy inflation driven by the Iran conflict.

Version 24 months ago

What changed: The story was updated to include February Core PCE data (3%), the decline in personal income, and the upward revision of March CPI forecasts to 3.4%.

Version 14 months ago

What changed: Updated forecasts to show March inflation potentially exceeding 3% and shifted focus toward the risk of price pressures broadening beyond energy.