US EIA Warns Fuel Prices May Stay High Despite Potential Geopolitical De-escalation

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has warned that global fuel prices could remain elevated for several months, even as a two-week Iran-US ceasefire begins to offer hope to markets. While the de-escalation is a positive step, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) cautioned that jet fuel supply recovery could take months even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Middle East refineries, which serve as a critical hub for global jet fuel exports, are currently struggling to return to normal operations. These logistical bottlenecks and the ongoing refining crisis suggest that a reopening of transit routes will not provide immediate relief to energy consumers. Consequently, analysts expect energy-driven inflationary pressures to persist longer than previously anticipated due to these structural supply constraints. The market remains focused on whether refining capacity can recover quickly enough to meet global demand despite the diplomatic breakthrough.