Iran Diplomacy and Tanker Data Suggest Lower Oil Supply Risks

Recent data from Citrini Research indicates that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is 50% higher than AIS tracking suggests, implying stronger supply resilience. Analysts suggest that oil markets may have mispriced supply risks due to the significant underreporting of actual tanker movements in official data. Concurrently, diplomatic efforts led by the European Union point toward a potential deal aimed at mitigating energy market disruptions and easing anxiety. The combination of higher-than-expected supply and diplomatic progress is expected to exert downward pressure on crude oil and gold prices. This shift could effectively reduce the geopolitical risk premium that has recently supported commodity markets. Conversely, a de-escalation in tensions could provide a bullish catalyst for global equity indices like the SPY.