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ForexMediumUpdated•Originally published 5 April 2026•Updated 7 April 2026•

1 min read

Rabobank Forecasts EUR/USD Decline to 1.14 Amid Rising Geopolitical Risks

Two central bankers, Christine Lagarde and Thomas Jordan, with EU and Swiss flags, Euro and Swiss Franc symbols, and coins.

Key Facts

1The EUR/USD exchange rate closed near 1.1521, with the pair under downward pressure.

about 2 months ago

Version History

3 additional sources confirmed this story

Version 1about 2 months ago

What changed: EUR/USD is now consolidating around 1.1530 as market attention incorporates a specific deadline set by Trump as a key catalyst alongside existing geopolitical risks.

Rabobank maintains its bearish short-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair, targeting a decline to the 1.14 level within a one-month horizon. Currently, the exchange rate is consolidating around the 1.1530 level as market participants closely monitor a key deadline set by Donald Trump as a potential catalyst. This relative stability follows a period of persistent downward pressure on the Euro, driven by the US Dollar's status as a primary safe-haven asset. Analysts note that while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to drive demand for safety, the upcoming political deadline has introduced a new layer of market uncertainty. Consequently, the Euro is struggling to regain momentum as investors reassess their risk exposure in a liquidity-focused environment. The bank's view suggests that the overall macroeconomic climate remains favorable for continued USD strength against major peers.