EL7.AI
CommoditiesMediumUpdated•Originally published 31 March 2026•Updated 2 April 2026•
1 min read

Hormuz Crisis Threatens Global Fertilizer Supply and Food Security

Key Facts

1The global fertilizer market faces intense pressure as the Hormuz closure threatens 15% of global ammonia and 21% of urea trade.
2Leading exporters impacted include Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, Iran, and Iraq.
3The logistics shock is projected to rapidly extend into global food and agricultural supply chains.

The global fertilizer market remains under pressure due to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, with Rystad Energy warning that a closure puts 15% of ammonia and 21% of urea trade at risk. While regional exporters in the Gulf face logistical hurdles, North American producers are positioned to capture supply gaps. Specifically, Nutrien Ltd is increasingly viewed as undervalued, leveraging North American gas price arbitrage to drive explosive margin expansion compared to global peers. The company currently offers a 2.9% dividend yield and is prioritizing structural transformation alongside share buybacks. While firms like CF Industries and Mosaic also stand to benefit from the supply shock, Nutrien's cost advantage provides a unique hedge against global volatility. Market participants continue to monitor the impact of geopolitical escalations on agricultural ETFs like DBA and broader food inflation.