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CommoditiesMedium•26 March 2026•

1 min read

J.P. Morgan Warns of Sequential Global Oil Supply Shock Peaking in April

Key Facts

1J.P. Morgan strategists warned that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz over the past four weeks will trigger a sequential shock to global supplies.

2The shock is expected to move from East to West, with much of the world feeling the impact by April 2026.

3The timing is due to the physical time lag of oil shipments traveling from the Middle East to global refineries.

J.P. Morgan strategists have issued a warning regarding a "ticking time bomb" in global energy markets following a month of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The analysts predict that these disruptions will trigger a sequential supply shock that is expected to manifest fully by April 2026. According to the report, the shock will move geographically from East to West as the physical impact of delayed shipments reaches global refineries. This timeline is dictated by the logistical lag inherent in transporting crude oil from the Middle East to international markets. While the initial conflict was known, the specific identification of a looming April supply crunch provides a concrete window for potential price spikes. Consequently, instruments like Brent Crude and WTI, along with energy ETFs like XLE and USO, may face significant upward pressure.

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