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Macro EconomyMedium•25 March 2026•

1 min read

Moody’s Warns Recession Odds Hit 50% Amid Iran Tensions and $100 Oil

Key Facts

1Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist, warns that recession odds are creeping toward 50%.

2Oil prices have steadily climbed above $100 per barrel.

3Iran rejected a U.S. peace proposal, escalating geopolitical tensions.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, has warned that the probability of a recession is now creeping toward 50%. This heightened risk comes as oil prices have steadily climbed above the $100 per barrel threshold, straining global economic growth. Geopolitical tensions have escalated significantly following Iran's rejection of a U.S. peace proposal, further unsettling market stability. The combination of surging energy costs and diplomatic failures is creating substantial headwinds for the global economy and complicating inflation control. While a slowdown in GDP was previously anticipated, the specific warning of a 50% recession chance represents a major escalation in systemic risk. Analysts expect these factors to drive oil prices higher while potentially triggering a downturn in major equity indices like the SPY.

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