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Macro EconomyMediumUpdated•Originally published 20 March 2026•Updated 20 March 2026•

1 min read

Markets Price 50% Probability of Severe Global Supply Shock Amid Geopolitical Tensions

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Key Facts

1Financial markets are currently pricing in a 50% probability of a severe global supply shock due to the ongoing conflict.

3 months ago

Version History

Version 13 months ago

What changed: The story was updated to include warnings from Raymond James, StoneX, and The Bear Traps Report regarding a prolonged conflict duration, specifically linking energy shocks to rising recession risks and persistent inflation.

Financial markets are currently pricing in a 50% probability of a severe global supply shock as regional conflicts persist. Analysts from Raymond James, StoneX, and The Bear Traps Report have warned that the geopolitical conflict may be more prolonged than initially expected. These ongoing energy shocks are fueling fears of persistent inflation and significantly increasing the risks of a global recession. The current market sentiment reflects deep-seated anxiety regarding the future availability of energy and essential commodities. This quantification of risk is expected to put downward pressure on equity indices like SPY while boosting safe-haven assets and Brent Crude. Traders are now closely monitoring geopolitical developments that could turn these high-probability risks into a structural economic downturn.