JPMorgan Warns of Oil Production Shut-ins as Strait of Hormuz Remains Blocked

Key Facts

1Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has remained virtually nonexistent on day seven of the conflict.

2Roughly 76 million barrels of crude have accumulated on tankers and in storage since the end of February due to shipping disruptions.

3Saudi Arabia is moving 3.8 mbd through the East-West pipeline, below its 5 mbd nameplate capacity.

4The UAE has roughly 400 kbd of spare capacity in its bypass pipeline to Fujairah that remains underutilized.

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has come to a near-total standstill for the seventh consecutive day amid escalating regional conflict. According to JPMorgan, approximately 76 million barrels of crude oil have accumulated on tankers and in storage facilities since late February due to shipping disruptions. While Saudi Arabia is utilizing its East-West pipeline to transport 3.8 million barrels per day, it remains below its maximum capacity of 5 million barrels. Additionally, the UAE has roughly 400,000 barrels per day of underutilized spare capacity in its bypass pipeline to Fujairah. Analysts warn that if these alternative routes are not fully optimized, oil producers may be forced to halt extraction entirely as storage reaches its limits. This potential supply-side shock is expected to exert significant upward pressure on global energy prices, including Brent and WTI crude.