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Macro EconomyHigh Impact•5 March 2026•

1 min read

US Jobs Report Preview: Economists Expect "Low Hire, Low Fire" Trend to Persist in February

Electricity pylons and power lines connect to data centers with glowing blue lights, set against a US map background.

Key Facts

1Economists expect a "low hire, low fire" trend to continue in the US labor market during February.

2The unemployment rate is likely to remain low alongside a slow pace of new job creation.

Market analysts and institutional investors are closely monitoring the upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to signal a cooling yet stable labor market. Economists predict the continuation of a "low hire, low fire" trend, where companies retain existing staff while slowing down new recruitment efforts. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at historically low levels despite the visible deceleration in job creation during February. This equilibrium reflects a cautious approach by employers amid shifting macroeconomic conditions and the impact of sustained high interest rates. As a top-tier economic indicator, the report will play a crucial role in shaping the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions. Consequently, markets are bracing for potential volatility across major asset classes, including the US Dollar (DXY), Gold (XAU/USD), and the EUR/USD currency pair.