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CommoditiesHigh Impact•4 March 2026•

1 min read

Iraq Faces Risk of 3 Million BPD Oil Supply Loss Amid Hormuz Tensions

Infographic of oil tankers and the Strait of Hormuz map with text showing a 9% oil price increase to 104.

Key Facts

1Iraq has already begun shutting in approximately 1.5 million barrels per day due to export constraints.

2Supply losses could reach 3 million bpd if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist.

Iraq has commenced shutting in approximately 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil production due to escalating export constraints. Market analysts warn that supply losses could surge to 3 million bpd if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist. This potential shortfall represents one of the most significant sudden supply shocks in modern market history outside of major wars or sanctions. The scale of the disruption threatens to exhaust OPEC's spare capacity as the group may struggle to fill the resulting market gap. Such a massive reduction in output is expected to exert substantial bullish pressure on global benchmarks like Brent and WTI. Investors are closely monitoring the situation as the logistical bottleneck tests the resilience of global energy supply chains.