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CommoditiesMediumUpdated×2•Originally published 4 March 2026•Updated 4 March 2026•

1 min read

Middle East Conflict and Hormuz Closure Drive Brent-WTI Spread to Two-Year High

Infographic of oil tankers and the Strait of Hormuz map with text showing a 9% oil price increase to 104.

Key Facts

1Goldman Sachs has increased its global oil price forecasts.

3 months ago

Version History

Version 23 months ago

What changed: The situation escalated from forecasted risks to an active military conflict and the actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a multi-year high in the Brent-WTI spread.

Version 13 months ago

What changed: Updated with specific Q2 price targets ($76 for Brent and $71 for WTI) and identified inventory depletion in advanced economies as the primary driver for the hike.

A significant military conflict erupted over the weekend involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, triggering widespread disruption across the Middle East. Tanker traffic has come to a complete standstill following the total shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint for global energy. This escalation has caused the price spread between Brent crude and U.S. WTI to widen to its highest level in over two years. The market reaction reflects the materialization of supply risks previously forecasted by Goldman Sachs, as global logistics face severe constraints. Consequently, the widening premium highlights the immediate impact of regional supply halts compared to domestic U.S. production. Investors are now bracing for prolonged volatility as the closure threatens to rapidly deplete global oil inventories.