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Macro EconomyMedium•4 March 2026•

1 min read

China Eyes 4.5%-5% GDP Growth Target for 2026 Amid Structural Challenges

Composite image of a subway station with trains, a cityscape, and a highway with cars, overlaid with glowing data charts and a subway map.

Key Facts

1China is expected to set a GDP growth target of around 4.5% to 5% for 2026.

2Inflation target is expected to remain unchanged at 2%, with a projected budget deficit of 4%.

China is preparing to convene its annual policy meeting to establish key economic objectives for 2026, with expectations pointing toward a GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5%. The government is also anticipated to maintain its inflation target at 2% while expanding the budget deficit to 4% to support fiscal stimulus. These targets reflect Beijing's efforts to navigate a complex economic landscape characterized by a persistent real estate crisis and sluggish domestic consumption. While the increased deficit target signals a commitment to growth, the modest GDP goal underscores the reality of structural headwinds facing the world's second-largest economy. Investors are closely monitoring the "Two Sessions" for further details on policy support and structural reforms. The outcome is expected to have significant implications for regional markets and commodity prices, particularly Copper and the AUD/USD pair.