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CommoditiesHigh ImpactUpdated•Originally published 28 February 2026•Updated 28 February 2026•

1 min read

OPEC+ Weighs Output Hike Above Planned 137,000 BPD After Iran Strikes

Digital illustration of oil market dynamics with US and Iran maps, oil rigs, refineries, price charts, and a rising green arrow, with oil barrels in the foreground.

Key Facts

1OPEC+ is considering a larger oil output increase following military strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran.

3 months ago

Version History

Version 13 months ago

What changed: Added the specific baseline figure of 137,000 bpd for the Q4 production increase plan, providing a quantitative benchmark for the potential hike.

OPEC+ is reportedly considering an oil production increase that exceeds its initial plans following military strikes on Iranian targets. The group's original base-case scenario involved raising output by 137,000 barrels per day, consistent with scheduled increments for the fourth quarter. This potential shift serves as a strategic response to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to ensure global market stability. By considering a larger hike, the alliance aims to address supply disruption fears triggered by the ongoing regional conflict. Analysts suggest that providing supply beyond the planned 137,000 bpd would likely exert downward pressure on Brent and WTI prices. Market participants remain focused on upcoming official decisions to gauge the scale of this production adjustment.