IDC: Global Smartphone Shipments to Hit 10-Year Low in 2026 Amid Memory Crunch

Key Facts

1IDC estimates global smartphone shipments will plunge 12.9% in 2026 to 1.1 billion units, the lowest annual level in over a decade.

2The supply crunch is driven by soaring data center demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM).

3Low-end Android vendors are likely to suffer the most, while Apple and Samsung are better positioned to expand market share.

International Data Corporation (IDC) has issued a stark warning regarding a "tsunami-like shock" to the global smartphone market. Shipments are projected to plunge by 12.9% in 2026, reaching just 1.1 billion units, the lowest annual level in over a decade. The downturn is primarily driven by a massive supply shift toward High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) required for AI and data centers. This pivot is starving the consumer electronics sector, leading to severe component shortages and rising manufacturing costs. While low-end Android manufacturers face the greatest risk, industry leaders like Apple and Samsung are expected to leverage their supply chain dominance to gain market share. The scale of this contraction is anticipated to be more severe than the disruptions seen during the global pandemic.