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Macro EconomyHigh Impact•27 February 2026•

1 min read

Historic US Migration Reversal Threatens Sustainability of $38.8 Trillion National Debt

A man in a suit stands before a classical building with financial charts, a large percent symbol, oil barrels, and US dollars.

Key Facts

1For the first time since the Great Depression, more people are moving out of the U.S. than moving in.

The United States is witnessing a historic demographic shift as net migration turns negative for the first time since the Great Depression. This reversal comes at a critical juncture, with the U.S. national debt currently standing at a staggering $38.8 trillion. Analysts warn that the ongoing crackdown on immigration could erase the country's most potent fiscal engine: a growing labor force and taxpayer base. A shrinking pool of contributors poses a direct threat to the federal government's ability to service its massive sovereign debt obligations. This structural weakness is expected to dampen long-term GDP growth and heighten the risk of fiscal instability across the economy. Consequently, these developments are viewed as fundamentally bearish for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) and long-term Treasuries as markets reassess the nation's long-term fiscal health.