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Macro EconomyMedium•26 February 2026•

1 min read

U.S. Budget Deficit Projected to Hit 5.9% of GDP by 2030

Emmanuel Macron's face centered between cracked Visa and Mastercard cards, with Euro and Ethereum symbols, bank buildings, and digital payment cards.

Key Facts

1The U.S. annual deficit is projected to reach 5.9% of GDP by 2030.

2The deficit will exceed spending on Social Security and equal major health programs.

Recent fiscal projections indicate that the U.S. annual deficit is set to swell to 5.9% of GDP by the year 2030. This significant increase highlights deep structural fiscal imbalances, as the deficit is expected to exceed total spending on Social Security. Furthermore, the projected deficit will likely equal the expenditure of major federal health programs, signaling a widening fiscal gap. These estimates far exceed the commonly cited stability target of 3% of GDP, raising serious concerns about long-term debt sustainability. Market analysts suggest that such fiscal instability could put upward pressure on Treasury yields, specifically the US10Y. Ultimately, the persistent deficit may weaken the long-term purchasing power of the USD and necessitate future tax hikes, potentially weighing on equity markets.