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BondsMedium•25 February 2026•

1 min read

UBS Warns Private Credit Default Rates Could Hit 15% Amid AI Disruption

Key Facts

1UBS strategists warned that default rates in the private credit market could surge to as high as 15%.

2The primary driver for this projected surge is the 'aggressive' disruption that AI could cause to the business models of corporate borrowers.

Strategists at UBS have issued a stark warning that default rates in the private credit market could surge to as high as 15%. The primary driver for this projected spike is the "aggressive" disruption that artificial intelligence is expected to cause to corporate business models. According to the report, the rapid integration of AI could challenge the long-term viability of certain borrowers, making it increasingly difficult for them to service private debts. Such a high default rate would represent a major credit event, significantly impacting Business Development Companies (BDCs) and high-yield bond ETFs like HYG. Financial institutions with heavy exposure to private lending are advised to monitor these emerging credit risks closely as AI reshapes the competitive landscape. This outlook underscores the potential for technological shifts to trigger significant volatility in the corporate credit sector.