Saudi Arabia Records Largest Budget Deficit Since 2020 as Oil Prices Slump

Saudi Arabia reported a budget deficit of 94.9 billion riyals ($25.3 billion) in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking its widest fiscal gap in five years. According to the Ministry of Finance, the total deficit for the full year reached 276.6 billion riyals, accounting for approximately 5.5% of the nation's GDP. The fiscal shortfall is primarily attributed to declining crude oil revenues coupled with sustained high expenditure on Vision 2030 megaprojects. Current data suggests the Kingdom requires an oil price near $97 per barrel to balance its budget, while Brent crude continues to trade significantly lower at around $71. This widening gap increases the likelihood of further international debt issuance and potential adjustments to the scale of major economic initiatives. Market analysts expect these fiscal pressures to weigh on investor sentiment across the TASI index and Saudi sovereign bonds in the near term.