Fed's Waller Says US Employment Likely Declined in 2025, Citing Data Bias

Key Facts

1Fed Governor Chris Waller stated that U.S. employment likely declined in 2025.

2Waller noted that BLS data showing an average of 15,000 new positions a month contained an 'upward bias.'

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller recently expressed skepticism regarding the strength of the U.S. labor market in 2025. Waller stated that employment likely contracted during that period, contrary to official reports of modest growth. He pointed out that data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which showed an average monthly gain of 15,000 jobs, contained a significant 'upward bias.' This assessment suggests that the actual economic health of the United States was more fragile than previously understood by policymakers. Such comments could influence market expectations for future monetary policy, as a weaker labor market often necessitates a more accommodative stance. Consequently, these remarks are expected to put downward pressure on the U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields while potentially supporting safe-haven assets like gold.