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GeopoliticsHigh Impact•21 February 2026•

1 min read

US-Iran Conflict Risks Threaten Global Recession and Oil Price Surge

US flag on map, Middle East map, warships, oil tankers, oil barrels, and naval mines on water, with trade routes and an upward trend graph.

Key Facts

1A potential U.S. attack on Iran may aim for regime change.

2Expectations of a prolonged spike in oil prices in the event of military conflict.

Geopolitical tensions are escalating amid reports of a potential U.S. military strike against Iran, with strategic objectives possibly including regime change. Analysts warn that such a conflict could trigger a sustained and significant spike in global oil prices due to major supply disruptions in the region. The current geopolitical landscape is viewed as more complex than in 2025, heightening the risk of a severe and lasting energy price shock. This potential surge in energy costs threatens to induce a global recession characterized by intense stagflationary pressures. While equity markets like the SPY face significant downside risks, safe-haven assets such as XAU/USD and energy commodities like Brent Oil are expected to rally. Investors are closely monitoring these developments as the strategic situation in the Middle East remains highly volatile and unpredictable.