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Macro EconomyMedium•20 February 2026•

1 min read

US GDP Growth Set to Slow Sharply in Q4 as Markets Await Key Data

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The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is scheduled to release its first preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP growth today at 13:30 GMT. Market participants are anticipating a significant deceleration in economic activity compared to the exceptionally strong performance recorded in the third quarter. This expected cooling comes as investors search for signs of a 'soft landing' and assess the lagging impact of previous monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. As a high-impact macroeconomic indicator, the GDP data is expected to trigger volatility across major asset classes, including the DXY and SPY. A weaker-than-expected figure could fuel expectations for early interest rate cuts, while a surprise beat might support the 'higher for longer' narrative. Traders are closely monitoring the impact on major currency pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY, as well as gold prices.