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Central BanksMedium•17 February 2026•

1 min read

ING: RBNZ May Delay Rate Cuts as Inflation Risks Exceed Projections

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Analysts at ING suggest that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may need to postpone its planned interest rate cuts due to persistent inflationary pressures. Recent data indicates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in New Zealand has significantly exceeded the central bank's previous forecasts. ING argues that the RBNZ's projections from November 2025 likely underestimated the stickiness of inflation in the current economic climate. This mismatch between official projections and actual economic performance suggests a more hawkish path for monetary policy than previously anticipated. Consequently, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to find support against major peers as markets price in a 'higher-for-longer' rate environment. Francesco Pesole of ING noted that the central bank's models may require adjustment to reflect the evolving price stability risks.