Goldman Sachs: Trump Immigration Crackdown Triggers 80% Plunge in Immigrant Employment

A recent analysis by Goldman Sachs reveals that immigration restrictions under the Trump administration have led to a staggering 80% decline in immigrant employment. This shift marks a significant departure from the 2010s, when net immigration averaged approximately 1 million people per year. The sharp contraction in labor supply is expected to exert upward pressure on wages, potentially fueling persistent inflationary trends across the US economy. Such dynamics could compel the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period, providing a hawkish tailwind for the USD while weighing on equity indices like the SPY. However, the resulting labor shortage also poses a risk to overall GDP growth, creating a complex outlook for the broader market. Investors are closely monitoring these structural shifts as they weigh the balance between wage-driven inflation and slowing economic momentum.