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CommoditiesMedium•17 February 2026•

1 min read

Citi Forecasts Brent Oil at $60 if Trump Secures Deals with Russia and Iran

An oil tanker, oil barrels, gold bars, and coins with Bitcoin logos are set against a map of Iran with financial charts and oil rigs.

Citi analysts have issued a forecast suggesting a significant decline in global oil prices, targeting $60-$62 for Brent crude under potential Trump administration policies. The projection is contingent on Donald Trump successfully negotiating a peace deal with Russia and a new nuclear agreement with Iran. According to the bank's base case scenario, these diplomatic breakthroughs are expected to materialize by or during the summer of 2026. Such geopolitical de-escalation would likely eliminate the current risk premium and potentially increase global oil supply significantly. Furthermore, the report indicates that refining margins for diesel and gasoline could decrease by $5 to $10 as a result of these developments. This outlook underscores the potential for major bearish shifts in energy markets driven by fundamental changes in U.S. foreign policy.