India Eyes Shift to Venezuelan Oil as New US License Restricts China and Russia

The US Department of the Treasury has issued 'Venezuela General License 48,' potentially triggering a major realignment in global oil procurement. While the license permits US companies to operate within Venezuela's energy sector, it strictly prohibits transactions involving China, Russia, and Iran. Analysts suggest India could pivot to purchase approximately 642,000 barrels per day previously destined for China, a move that could halve its current reliance on Russian oil. This strategic shift reflects a US policy aimed at restricting resources to adversaries while securing alternative supply routes for key partners. Market participants expect this realignment to impact Brent Crude and WTI benchmarks significantly. Furthermore, the transition is likely to drive volatility in related currency pairs, specifically USD/INR and RUB/USD.