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ForexMedium•13 February 2026•

1 min read

USD/CAD Gains on Strong US Jobs Data and USMCA Trade Concerns

Donald Trump against maps of the US and Iran, with oil barrels, pipelines, derricks, and upward financial charts amidst flames.

The USD/CAD pair experienced a notable upward move following a resilient US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report that exceeded market expectations. Strong labor data prompted investors to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, providing a significant boost to the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar is under pressure due to reports that President Trump is privately considering a withdrawal from the USMCA trade agreement. These potential trade disruptions are creating economic uncertainty for Canada, overshadowing its stabilizing domestic labor market. The Bank of Canada (BoC) continues to maintain a neutral policy stance as core inflation remains sticky above the 2.5% threshold. Market analysts suggest that the combination of hawkish Fed repricing and geopolitical risks favors a bullish outlook for the USDCAD pair.