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Macro EconomyMedium•13 February 2026•

1 min read

TD Securities Expects US Core CPI to Surpass Market Consensus in January

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TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team has issued a forecast for the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, projecting a significant rise in core inflation. The bank expects core CPI to increase by 0.42% month-on-month in January, notably higher than the market consensus of 0.3%. Meanwhile, the headline CPI is anticipated to reach 0.30% for the same period. This forecast is driven by an analysis of core strength within the inflation basket and its potential impact on the yield curve. A higher-than-expected reading would likely bolster the US Dollar and push Treasury yields higher as markets recalibrate expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Such a scenario suggests that the Fed may need to maintain elevated interest rates for a longer duration to combat persistent price pressures.