RBC Expects BoC to Maintain Policy Bias Despite Lowered 2025 Growth Forecasts

RBC Economics analyst Claire Fan suggests the Bank of Canada (BoC) will likely maintain its current monetary policy bias in the near term. This outlook comes as the bank downgraded its growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 to a flat 0%, citing a softening GDP trajectory. While trade-exposed manufacturing sectors continue to show weakness, the report notes that broader negative spillovers to other economic sectors remain limited. Despite the near-term stagnation, RBC anticipates a gradual improvement in per-capita GDP figures by 2026. Market participants are closely watching the BoC's next moves, as the "holding bias" suggests no immediate shift in interest rate strategy. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces a mixed environment, balancing weak growth data against the central bank's steady stance.