Oil Outlook Diverges: IEA Cuts Demand as EIA Raises 2026 WTI Price Forecast

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its 2026 oil demand growth forecast to 850,000 barrels per day, warning of a potential market surplus as global production rises. In a new update, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its 2026 WTI spot price forecast to an average of $53.42 per barrel. Despite this near-term upward revision, the EIA lowered its oil price projections for 2027, signaling a more cautious long-term outlook. The IEA expects demand growth to be driven primarily by developing economies like China, with a shift toward petrochemical feedstocks. This remains in sharp contrast to OPEC’s more optimistic growth forecast of 1.4 million bpd for the same period. These conflicting signals from major energy agencies highlight the deep uncertainty surrounding market balance and price trajectories in the coming years.