Morgan Stanley Cuts 2026 PC Shipment Forecast Amid Weak Demand

Morgan Stanley has significantly revised its forecast for global PC shipments in 2026, now projecting a decline of over 5%. This bearish outlook follows a substantial 14% miss in January notebook builds from top Original Design Manufacturers (ODMs). The firm attributes the downward revision to weakening consumer demand, exacerbated by higher memory-related prices. Additionally, Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are strategically shifting towards higher-margin PC products, impacting overall unit volumes. Morgan Stanley anticipates a sharp 11% year-over-year drop in Q1 2026 notebook builds. This trend could lead to a more than 10% decline in PC unit shipments for the entire year, absent significant improvement in February or March. The revised forecast signals potential headwinds for PC manufacturers and related tech companies.