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ForexMedium•13 February 2026•

1 min read

Markets Price in Weak US Payrolls; Limited Downside for US Dollar Ahead of NFP

Golden Yen/Yuan symbol with green arrows pointing up, and a US dollar bill sinking into cracked ground with downward arrows.

Financial markets have already factored a potential disappointment in the upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data into the current valuation of the US Dollar. The greenback is currently trading under the assumption that labor market cooling will persist, reflecting expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy. Analysts suggest that because these expectations are already "priced in," the currency may face limited downside unless the actual figures are significantly worse than anticipated. Conversely, any data that proves to be stronger or even "less bad" than the current low expectations could trigger a relief rally for the USD. This positioning reflects a cautious stance among forex traders ahead of the Department of Labor's official release. Major pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY remain sensitive to any deviations from these pre-set market assumptions.