CBRT Raises 2026 Inflation Forecast Amid Unchanged Targets, Easing Bias

The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) has revised its 2026 inflation forecast range upwards, according to analysis from ING. This adjustment signals an evolving outlook on future price pressures within the Turkish economy. Despite this upward revision, the CBRT has opted to keep its official inflation targets unchanged, maintaining a relatively constructive stance on the overall inflation outlook. The bank also continues to signal an easing bias in its monetary policy. This combination of a higher long-term inflation forecast alongside an easing bias creates conflicting signals for the Turkish Lira and future monetary policy expectations. Analysts suggest that while higher inflation forecasts typically imply tighter policy, the sustained easing bias introduces uncertainty regarding the CBRT's next moves.