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Macro EconomyMedium•13 February 2026•

1 min read

CBO Warns US Debt to Hit Record Levels by 2030 Amid Fiscal Sustainability Concerns

Emmanuel Macron's face centered between cracked Visa and Mastercard cards, with Euro and Ethereum symbols, bank buildings, and digital payment cards.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has issued a stark warning regarding the US fiscal outlook, stating that the current national debt trajectory is fundamentally unsustainable. Projections indicate that the US national debt is on track to surpass the historical record of 106% of GDP by 2030, a level not seen since the aftermath of World War II. This fiscal strain is being exacerbated by policy changes, with estimates suggesting that Donald Trump’s policies will add approximately $1.4 trillion to the projected 10-year deficit. Such fiscal instability typically exerts upward pressure on Treasury yields (US10Y) and may weaken the long-term outlook for the US Dollar (USD). Market participants are closely monitoring these developments, which could drive demand for safe-haven assets like Gold (XAU/USD) and impact long-term bond instruments like TLT.