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Central Banks•12 February 2026•

1 min read

RBC Economics: Minor Changes to US Outlook, Fed Rate Path Remains Steady

A man in a suit and glasses speaks at a podium with "John C. Williams, President, New York Federal Reserve" text. The background is golden with glowing data graphics and a cityscape. Text overlays rea

RBC Economics, through Senior Economist Claire Fan, has presented an updated U.S. economic outlook, noting only minor adjustments to its projections. The analysis indicates a slightly lower near-term unemployment forecast, reflecting current labor market dynamics. However, the firm maintained its average unemployment forecast of 4.5% for 2026, signaling no significant long-term shifts. These minor revisions suggest that RBC Economics anticipates no major changes to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory. Consequently, expectations for Fed interest rates are likely to remain steady, aligning with the current market sentiment. This outlook implies a stable environment for key currency pairs such as EUR/USD and USD/JPY.

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