Microsoft and Alphabet reported results minutes apart on the evening of 28 October. Google Cloud revenue grew 103% and Azure accelerated to 48%, but Alphabet spent $51.36 billion on data centres in a single quarter, exceeding the cash its operations generated, while Microsoft retained a cash surplus of more than $18 billion. In after-hours trading, Microsoft shares rose and Alphabet shares fell.
October 28, 2026The Federal Reserve held its interest rate range at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October. Two members dissented in favour of a quarter-point hike, including Lisa Cook for the first time this year.
Oct 28, 2026The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the Official Cash Rate at 2.75% on 28 October by a 4 to 3 vote, after two consecutive hikes, on a day when markets priced a rise to 3% as almost certain. All seven members agree that tightening is likely, but differ on timing.
Oct 28, 2026The Bank of Japan’s inflation measure excluding government subsidies jumped to 3.2% in September, its largest monthly increase in a series beginning in 2016, while the official rate remained at 2.1%.
Oct 28, 2026Fire broke out near Saudi Arabia’s largest export terminal, and the Houthis claimed to have hit the Kingdom’s largest refinery, yet Brent closed below its opening level and Saudi equities rose. We measure how much Saudi crude exports are within missile range, how many barrels were actually lost, and trace the session hour by hour to establish what the market priced in.
Oct 27, 2026نتوقع رفع سعر الفائدة الليلي المستهدف بمقدار 25 نقطة أساس من 2.25% إلى 2.50%، بما يتسق مع إجماع الاقتصاديين في التقويم الاقتصادي لمنصة EL7. نرجح الرفع الاحترازي استناداً إلى تحذير …
Oct 27, 2026نتوقع بثقة عالية رفع سعر الفائدة الرسمي بمقدار 25 نقطة أساس من 2.75% إلى 3%، وهو توقع متسق مع إجماع الاقتصاديين في التقويم الاقتصادي لمنصة EL7. التضخم عند 3.7% ما زال فوق النطاق ال…
Oct 27, 2026نتوقع تثبيت الفائدة في 29 أكتوبر 2026 بثقة عالية، عند 2.50% للإيداع و2.65% لإعادة التمويل الرئيسي و2.90% للإقراض الهامشي، بما يتسق مع إجماع الاقتصاديين في التقويم الاقتصادي لمنصة E…
Oct 27, 2026لماذا أنشأ بنك الشعب الصيني أداة طوارئ لصناديق السندات ومنتجات إدارة الثروات؟ قراءة EL7 في مؤشرات السيولة والسندات والتدفقات: ثلاثة مؤشرات هادئة وإنذار مبكر واحد.
Oct 27, 2026لماذا أفلست Getty Images؟ قراءة EL7 في ملف الفصل 11: أحكام قضائية وصفقة Shutterstock الملغاة وعبء الدين ودور الذكاء الاصطناعي، ودرجات EL7 للشركات التي تحمل العلامات نفسها.
Oct 27, 2026The probability of Democrats winning both chambers of Congress on 3 November has risen from 47% to 63% since mid-September, while the S&P 500 has barely moved.
Oct 27, 2026After Lula won the runoff, São Paulo equities fell 13.88% and the real lost 8.42% in a single session, while the Treasury cancelled two bond auctions.
Oct 27, 2026US pump diesel prices have exceeded 6 dollars for the sixth week, while mid-October inventories are at their lowest since records began. Yet its refining margin has fallen 21% since mid-September.
Oct 27, 2026We read the public prospectus Anthropic filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on 26 October, seeking to list its shares on Nasdaq under the ticker «ANT».
Oct 27, 2026Between early Wednesday and Friday evening, nine central banks set interest rates, while Gulf central banks follow the Federal Reserve. Here we give our call on each decision before its release, our confidence level, the signal that would overturn it, and the market that bears the cost of a surprise.
Oct 27, 2026نرجح تثبيت الفائدة عند 1.25% مع استمرار الانحياز نحو رفع لاحق مشروط. الأساسي عند 2.1% يدعم التطبيع، لكن مفاجأة التضخم العام الأهدأ، والنمو عند 0.4%، وتراجع غير التصنيع وارتفاع البط…
Oct 27, 2026TASI closed on 25 October at 9,438.50 points, its lowest close in more than five and a half years, while Brent crude nears 117 dollars. We traced the path from barrel price to share price and found that Saudi Arabia produced fewer barrels at higher prices, Aramco earned more but paid the same dividend, and the rest of the market is bearing the war's costs directly.
Oct 25, 2026Time to power has become the scarcest commodity in the AI race: more than five years for a grid connection, manufacturing queues for turbines, and reactor capacity increases extending to 2032.
Oct 25, 2026At least 8 commercial vessels were targeted off Romania and Bulgaria in October, while attacks on Saudi Arabia are hitting oil facilities themselves. Yet wheat fell and oil rose in the same weeks. We measured what passes through each corridor, how much war-risk insurance adds to a cargo, which side bears the cost, who unwound positions, and who captured the risk premium in equities.
Oct 25, 2026Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon report within 48 hours, days after Meta’s free cash flow turned negative. We read the three companies’ cash flow statements and calculated each company’s “break-even threshold”: the operating cash it needs in the second half of 2026 to cover its remaining spending.
Oct 25, 2026From early Wednesday to Friday morning come Australian inflation, Britain's budget, decisions from the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, and US GDP.
Oct 25, 2026We examined Meta's Q3 2026 disclosures to answer one question: if data centre spending has exceeded the cash the business generates, where does the funding come from? The answer lies in four sources: operating cash flow that no longer suffices, debt that rose from 59 to 84 billion dollars, a new non-voting share class, and around 825 billion dollars in off-balance-sheet contracts and commitments.
Oct 23, 2026Equity and commodity markets accounted for half of perpetual futures trading on Hyperliquid in July, then fell to a quarter in September. We rebuilt the full series from the platform’s own data, measured trading hour by hour, and tracked what happened to the oil contract when the Iran war broke out while futures markets were closed.
Oct 23, 2026Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said seven tankers had been hit in the Gulf and west of the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent to Thursday’s close up 4% at its highest settlement since 4 May. We measured the session using five-minute prices, separated confirmed reports from unverified claims, then compared futures with physical cargo prices, which moved in the opposite direction.
Oct 23, 2026On 22 October, US stocks fell and the ten-year Treasury par yield recorded its largest daily decline since August 2024, yet gold fell 2.81%. EL7 calculations since 2000 show that gold has fallen this much on a comparable day only ten times, most recently in 2011. We measured what held up and what fell, and examined the four reasons.
Oct 23, 2026France’s ten-year bond yield touched 5% for the first time since July 2002, and its spread over Germany reached its widest close since January 2012. We split the yield into the German yield and the French premium, compared its composition with 2002, then measured the gap between the market yield and what France actually pays on its debt.
Oct 21, 2026We measured results from 47 S&P 500 companies that reported Q3 earnings between 1 and 20 October, and their share moves on the reaction day. The overwhelming majority beat estimates, but the size of the beat explained only a small part of the move, and the direction of guidance did not determine it either.
Oct 21, 2026Japan’s trade deficit reached 2,818 billion yen between April and September, but energy explains its widening. Japan imported less oil and paid more, shifted roughly a third of its crude purchases to the United States, while its surplus in other goods widened. We examined the official data item by item and measured their impact on the yen.
Oct 21, 2026A distributor in western Melbourne suspended a 66-kilovolt power line extension under pressure from residents, prompting NextDC to remove A$140 million in earnings from its forecasts, including capacity it was already billing for, and freeze new projects. Its shares fell 41.72%.
Oct 21, 2026نرجح تثبيت الفائدة عند 3.75%-4% مع بقاء الانحياز لمكافحة التضخم. ضعف الوظائف والأجور يبرر تقييم أثر رفع سبتمبر، لكنه لا يلغي دلالة التضخم الأساسي الأعلى من المتوقع أو مسار الفائدة …
Oct 21, 2026The probability of a Canadian rate rise on 28 October climbed from around 35% to around 80% in a single day, even though inflation data released that morning came in below forecasts. We tracked the shift hour by hour, compared September's data with the inputs to the bank's new forecasts, and measured the surprise implied by a rise and a hold.
Oct 21, 2026United, Delta and Alaska raised fares enough to cover the increase in their third-quarter fuel bills, and United carried a record number of passengers. Yet all three cut their forecasts because fuel rose faster than they had assumed in July, and they expect fourth-quarter prices to be roughly double what they paid a year earlier.
Oct 21, 2026Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla and SpaceX have formed two independent committees to explore a merger, and that he is barred from participating because he is on both sides.
Oct 21, 2026Four days ago, Brent fell despite the sinking of two ships near Hormuz, because neither carried oil. It then ended Friday at its highest close since May. We put the same questions to the following four days: what was hit, what remained in US inventories, who led the rally, where speculators stood, and what was pushing prices lower.
Oct 19, 2026The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 15.7% between 7 and 16 October, its longest losing streak since October 2008. This research tests four explanations against the numbers: interest rates, which fell during the streak; AI funding, which drove the worst days; valuations, which differentiated stocks; and the record of every comparable decline since 1995 and what followed.
Oct 19, 2026Battery electric vehicle registrations in Europe jumped 70.3% in September, and Germany registered more electric cars than petrol and diesel cars combined for the first time.
Oct 19, 2026Samsung estimated third-quarter operating income at about 107.4 trillion won, more than NVIDIA earned in its latest reported quarter, yet memory stocks fell between 14.6% and 19.3% in a single week.
Oct 18, 2026The US government paid 1,051.8 billion dollars in net interest in fiscal year 2026, more than it spent on defence and roughly one dollar for every five dollars collected. Yet its average borrowing cost remains 1.77 percentage points below the market rate, a gap that closes as old debt is refinanced.
Oct 18, 2026President Trump exempted his administration from most provisions of the new Russia sanctions law two days before its deadline, while the Treasury is considering allowing shadow fleet tankers to carry oil outside the scope of sanctions.
Oct 18, 2026Chile’s copper output fell in August to its lowest since February 2011, workers at Centinela went on strike, and supervisors at Escondida, the world’s largest mine, nearly followed. Yet copper ended this period below where it began.
Oct 18, 2026هل تحتاج فرنسا إلى صندوق النقد الدولي؟ ما قيل فعلاً، وسلّم أدوات الإنقاذ في منطقة اليورو، ولماذا لا تكفي قروض الصندوق حجم اقتراض فرنسا.
Oct 18, 2026Short interest on the New York Stock Exchange and its sister exchange NYSE American reached its highest level in the exchange's archive since 2015. We divided it by shares outstanding and trading volumes to assess whether it was truly a record, then asked: who is selling, and has such a figure ever predicted a market decline?
Oct 15, 2026Japan’s finance minister renewed her warning after the dollar touched 158.95 yen following US inflation data. We measured the four conditions preceding Tokyo’s six interventions since 2022. Hedge funds have rapidly resumed selling the yen and US backing remains in place, but the dollar is still 3.38% below its annual high and asset managers are still buying yen.
Oct 15, 2026The cost of insuring Oracle debt reached a record high, while CoreWeave’s exceeded 1,000 basis points, even as Oracle shares remain above their July low. This report explains debt insurance contracts from first principles, examines what creditors and shareholders say about the same companies, and explains why EL7’s model reproduces the insurance market’s ranking without any knowledge of it.
Oct 15, 2026أربعة عناوين صاعدة في يومين، من غرق سفينة في هرمز إلى هجوم على Aramco، ثم هبط برنت. نسأل كل عنوان كم برميلاً أخرج من السوق، ونتتبع السعر ساعة بساعة أمام البراميل التي تحركت فعلاً.
Oct 15, 2026جاءت إيرادات TSMC للربع الثالث فوق الحد الأعلى لتوجيهاتها وتوقعت للربع الرابع نمواً يقارب 58%، ومع ذلك تراجع سهمها. نقيس النتائج على أربع عتبات ونعود إلى سجل الإعلانات السابقة.
Oct 15, 2026Three weeks after the force majeure notice, the fate of Project Jupiter no longer hinges on a pipeline route, but on four matters before four authorities: a federal gas pipeline decision before 3 December, a fuel-cell air permit with no hearing scheduled, an interim power agreement opposed by the county, and lenders pricing the wait.
Oct 14, 2026EL7’s cybersecurity basket fell three times this year on news from AI labs, and was higher after 60 sessions each time. The OpenAI and Trail of Bits news arrives with the sector at its lowest valuation scores and highest momentum scores in EL7’s model.
Oct 14, 2026