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The Philly Fed New Orders index is a key component of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. It specifically tracks the volume of new purchase orders received by manufacturers within the Third Federal Reserve District. Because new orders precede production and employment, this index is considered a highly sensitive leading indicator of future industrial activity and broader economic health.
The index is calculated as a diffusion index: the percentage of manufacturers reporting an increase in orders minus the percentage reporting a decrease. A positive value indicates that more firms are seeing growth in orders than a decline.