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The Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite index designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. It combines several economic components that tend to change direction before the overall economy does, such as building permits and manufacturing orders. Analysts use this month-over-month change to gauge the likelihood of a recession or an economic expansion in the coming six to nine months.
The index is a weighted average of 10 economic components, including average weekly hours in manufacturing, jobless claims, and the interest rate spread. Each component is seasonally adjusted and smoothed to reduce volatility.