Treasury Refunding Financingimates

The Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates is the US Treasury quarterly outlook for privately-held net marketable borrowing with an assumed end-quarter cash balance. It covers federal borrowing in marketable securities from private investors. It is not a survey and has no respondents, no weights, and no seasonal adjustment. The Office of Debt Management prepares it with the Office of Fiscal Projections.

The Bureau of the Fiscal Service supplies the cash and debt data within the Quarterly Refunding process. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee advises but does not produce the estimates. They are not the deficit and not total debt, and they do not set auction sizes. Treasury states its goal as funding borrowing needs at the lowest cost over time.

It is published four times a year on Monday at 3:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Releases fall in early February, early May, late July or early August, and late October or early November. Each release gives a current-quarter estimate with its cash assumption and change from the prior announcement. It also gives a next-quarter estimate and the finished quarter result against its estimate, with drivers in each case.

A Sources and Uses Table accompanies each release for reconciliation. Auction details follow two days later at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday.

Estimates move with budget flows, cash targets, redemptions, laws, and cash management.

• Net cash flows: receipts minus outlays.
• Beginning cash balance: cash on hand at the start.
• Assumed end cash balance: the target for quarter end.
• SOMA redemptions: maturing Fed holdings that private borrowing must replace.
• State and Local Government Series securities: special issues that shift borrowing needs.
• Laws, tax timing, and debt-limit effects: new spending, deferred receipts, and cash moves.

On May 4, 2020, Treasury estimated second-quarter 2020 borrowing at $2,999 billion. That was $3,055 billion above the February 2020 announcement and assumed an $800 billion end-June cash balance. Drivers were the COVID shock, relief spending, tax receipts shifted to July, and higher cash.

On August 3, 2020, Treasury reported actual second-quarter borrowing of $2,753 billion. That was $246 billion below estimate on lower spending and higher receipts, with a $1,722 billion end-quarter cash balance. It raised the third-quarter estimate from $677 billion to $947 billion on an $800 billion end-September cash balance. That rise assumed $1 trillion in added need from expected laws, which shows how legislation and cash assumptions move estimates.

1. Total net marketable borrowing equals the deficit plus the cash change plus other financing means. The publisher example for fiscal 2022, in $ billions: 1,375 plus 421 minus 125 equals 1,671.
2. Privately-held net marketable borrowing equals the total plus SOMA redemptions. In the same example, 1,671 plus 150 equals 1,821.
3. Sources and Uses check: total equals marketable borrowing plus all other sources. Cash change equals total minus financing need.
4. Actual inputs: deficits come from the Monthly Treasury Statement, and cash change comes from the Daily Treasury Statement. Cash change is the end balance minus the start balance.