EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

The EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change tracks the change in United States commercial crude oil inventories between successive reporting weeks. Commercial means stocks held by industry across the primary supply chain, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the government emergency stockpile. It is the headline crude line of the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), the Energy Information Administration survey system built from 7 weekly surveys. Coverage spans refineries, pipelines, terminals, stock holders and importers, drawn as a cut-off sample covering about 90% of volumes.

A positive value is a build, meaning stocks increased, while a negative value is a draw, meaning stocks decreased. The tradable headline is commercial only, so government reserve barrels never mix into it. Lease stocks sit outside commercial scope, as do secondary and end-user stocks, which the method treats as steady or small. Levels read against the 5-year average and 5-year high-low ranges, which give history without setting any trade signal.

Each reporting cycle covers a full reporting week, and respondents file soon after the close of that week. Staff prepare a clean data file later in the same week, followed by review and sign-off. Summary tables and highlights appear at a fixed morning hour, with full files released later the same day. Weeks that include holidays follow a published holiday schedule with shifted timing.

Each release shows estimated levels alongside the weekly change, plus comparisons with the 5-year average for that point in the cycle. Companion tables cover refinery inputs and use, production, imports, exports and petroleum product stocks. Spot and retail price pages travel with the same release. Material corrections appear in a later scheduled release, and weekly estimates are reconciled with fuller surveys over time.

The change is the net result of supply additions minus refinery use and exports inside the primary system.

• Commercial crude stocks: crude held at refineries, tank farms, pipelines, terminals and in transit by water and rail, forming the headline level.
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve: government emergency stocks shown on a separate line, never part of the headline change.
• Cushing hub: the Oklahoma storage complex serving the domestic benchmark contract delivery point, counted inside commercial stocks.
• Regional split: 5 districts from East Coast to West Coast, summed to the national total.
• Balance drivers: domestic production, imports, refinery inputs and use, exports, processing gain and a statistical supply adjustment.
• Context bands: the 5-year average and 5-year ranges, which describe history without giving any buy or sell trigger.

Analysts watch the release closely, and moves in spot and futures prices on release day are at times linked to it. Attention grows when markets run tight or when the outcome differs from expectations, such as a build where a decline was expected. The publisher itself gives no bullish or bearish rule and no trade signal.

1. Collection and imputation: Companies report for the reporting week, and missing values take smoothed averages computed from that firm alone.
2. Ratio estimation: Weekly totals scale survey-week sums toward the fuller census through Wt = (Mt / Ms) x Ws. Mt marks the fuller total, Ms marks the same firms in the base period, and Ws marks the survey-week sum.
3. Imports smoothing: Import ratios use exponential smoothing that leans on past weeks when company reports swing widely. If no base exists, the earlier smoothed ratio carries forward.
4. Aggregation and review: Product stocks sum refinery, terminal and pipeline estimates, while crude combines refinery and stockholder inputs across regions. Staff lock the file before publication, and the method adds no seasonal adjustment step.
5. Headline change: The weekly level minus the neighboring weekly level defines the change; positive is a build and negative is a draw. Highlights round to million barrels while detailed tables carry thousand barrels.