The S&P Global Services PMI Flash is a monthly early read on US services activity. The headline gauge is the Services Business Activity Index, which tracks change in business volume. The wider PMI programme covers more than 40 countries. US panels include about 650 manufacturers and 500 service providers grouped by detailed sector and workforce size based on shares in GDP. Panels cover consumer services excluding retail, transport, information, communication, finance, insurance, real estate and business services. Each index runs from 0 to 100, with 50 as the no-change line. The index tracks only direction of change versus the prior month, not output levels. It excludes retail trade, manufacturing activity and government activity. It differs from the ISM Services report and from the headline Manufacturing PMI.
Responses are gathered in the second half of each month, with the flash using the early part of that window. The flash appears mid to late in the reference month, about a week before month end, under embargo at 09:45 US Eastern time. Finals follow in later releases with full-month replies. The same release also carries the Composite Output Index, the Manufacturing Output Index and the Manufacturing PMI with commentary and charts. The flash rests on about 80 to 90% of replies as an early signal of the final. Replies are never revised after first publication, though seasonal adjustment factors can be updated.
The headline is business activity alone, with no weights, while other gauges track demand, capacity, jobs and prices.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 52.50 | 52.30 | +0.20 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 55.20 | 54.30 | +0.90 |
| Aug 21, 2025 | 55.40 | 53.00 | +2.40 |
| Apr 23, 2025 | 51.40 | 52.00 | -0.60 |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 50.80 | 50.50 | +0.30 |
| Aug 23, 2023 | 51.00 | 52.00 | -1.00 |
Strong demand lifts new orders and backlogs, while cost pressure feeds selling prices. Services can diverge from factory output, so the composite blends both.
Key point: Do not treat the services PMI like the Manufacturing PMI, a weighted mean of several gauges. The services headline comes from one question alone, and the flash is not the final.
