The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI Flash, where PMI means Purchasing Managers' Index, is an early estimate of factory conditions. Publisher S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global, surveys around 800 manufacturers grouped by sector and workforce size based on contributions to GDP. Managers report only direction of change versus the previous month. It never measures output volumes, sales levels, or GDP itself.
It differs from the separate ISM Manufacturing PMI, which uses another panel and method. Our page covers only the S&P Global survey. Scores range from 0 to 100, with 50.0 marking no change versus the previous month. Above 50.0 signals broad expansion, while below 50.0 signals broad contraction.
The flash uses around 85% of total responses to preview the final. It tracks the final within 0.3 on average in absolute terms. Results stay embargoed until 09:45 Eastern Time. Responses are collected in the second half of each month, with the flash closing earlier and the final running longer.
Responses are collected in the second half of each month, with the flash closing earlier and the final running longer. Results stay embargoed until 09:45 Eastern Time. The flash appears during the survey month on a business day. Final manufacturing follows in the next month and services with composite arrive days later.
Dates shift with business days and daylight saving changes. The flash release shows composite output, services activity, and manufacturing output plus orders, jobs, costs, prices, backlogs, and expectations. Final manufacturing and final services with composite are published on separate days.
The flash is designed to preview the final, using around 85% of responses. Underlying answers are never revised after publication, but seasonal factors may be revised. The flash tracks the final within 0.3 on average in absolute terms.
Five parts drive the headline, with fixed weights set by the publisher.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 51.80 | 52.00 | -0.20 |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 51.90 | 52.00 | -0.10 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 52.20 | 52.10 | +0.10 |
| Sep 23, 2025 | 52.00 | 52.00 | 0.00 |
| Aug 21, 2025 | 53.30 | 49.70 | +3.60 |
| Apr 23, 2025 | 50.70 | 49.50 | +1.20 |
| Aug 23, 2023 | 47.00 | 49.50 | -2.50 |
For example, a final reading of 47.7 after 50.4 flipped from expansion to contraction across 50.0. It stood near a flash of 47.6 by a gap of 0.1. It marked the first factory decline and the sharpest fall, showing how the 50.0 line carries the signal. Production fell quickly and new orders fell sharply, with export orders down for a sixth straight month.
Vendor lead times improved as demand eased, while input price growth eased for a sixth month. A 47.7 reading means broad contraction versus the previous month, not a matching percent fall in output.
Key point: A 47.7 reading never means output fell by a matching percent, it only means more firms worsened. The flash previews the final using around 85% of responses within 0.3 on average in absolute terms.
