The Chicago Business Barometer, published as Chicago PMI or MNI Chicago Report, is a monthly private survey produced by MNI Indicators with ISM-Chicago. It polls purchasing and supply-chain professionals, mainly ISM-Chicago members in the Chicago area. It covers both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms, so it is neither a national index nor government data, and it does not measure GDP itself. Its headline is designed to predict future changes in US gross domestic product (GDP).
Responses are usually collected over roughly the first 2 and a half weeks of the reference month. Results are released on the last working day of the month at 9:45 AM Eastern Time, with the date shifting around holidays such as Thanksgiving. Each release prints the 5 headline gauges plus Prices Paid, Inventories, Buying-Policy lead times in days, a Special Question, and an ISM comparison chart. Past values are revised once a year when seasonal factors are recalculated each January using the US Census X-13 procedure.
The headline blends 5 diffusion gauges, indexes built from shares of firms reporting improvement.
In the September 29, 2023 report the Barometer fell 4.6 points to 44.1 from 48.7 in August. New Orders collapsed 17.6 points, the sixth-biggest drop since the series began in 1967. Production fell 6.0 points to 51.1, still above 50, while Employment fell 3.8 points to 44.5.
Order Backlogs rose 10.5 points to its highest since April 2023 and Supplier Deliveries improved 2.6 points, while Prices Paid fell 14.5 points to 59.5. The lesson is that a falling headline can hide opposed parts, so each gauge must be read separately.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | 58.80 | 51.20 | +7.60 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 47.10 | 58.30 | -11.20 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | 57.60 | 56.00 | +1.60 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 56.70 | 58.10 | -1.40 |
| May 29, 2026 | 62.70 | 50.50 | +12.20 |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 49.20 | 53.00 | -3.80 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | 52.80 | 55.00 | -2.20 |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 57.70 | 52.80 | +4.90 |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 54.00 | 44.00 | +10.00 |
| Dec 30, 2025 | 43.50 | 39.50 | +4.00 |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 36.30 | 44.30 | -8.00 |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 43.80 | 42.30 | +1.50 |
| Sep 30, 2025 | 40.60 | 43.00 | -2.40 |
| Aug 29, 2025 | 41.50 | 46.00 | -4.50 |
| Jul 31, 2025 | 47.10 | 42.00 | +5.10 |
| Jun 30, 2025 | 40.40 | 43.00 | -2.60 |
| May 30, 2025 | 40.50 | 45.00 | -4.50 |
| Apr 30, 2025 | 44.60 | 45.50 | -0.90 |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 47.60 | 45.20 | +2.40 |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 45.50 | 40.60 | +4.90 |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 39.50 | 40.00 | -0.50 |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 36.90 | 42.50 | -5.60 |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 40.20 | 44.00 | -3.80 |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 41.60 | 47.00 | -5.40 |
| Sep 30, 2024 | 46.60 | 46.20 | +0.40 |
| Aug 30, 2024 | 46.10 | 45.50 | +0.60 |
| Jul 31, 2024 | 45.30 | 45.00 | +0.30 |
| Jun 28, 2024 | 47.40 | 40.00 | +7.40 |
| May 31, 2024 | 35.40 | 41.00 | -5.60 |
| Apr 30, 2024 | 37.90 | 45.00 | -7.10 |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 41.40 | 46.00 | -4.60 |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 44.00 | 48.00 | -4.00 |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 46.00 | 48.00 | -2.00 |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 46.90 | 51.00 | -4.10 |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 55.80 | 45.40 | +10.40 |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 44.00 | 45.00 | -1.00 |
| Sep 29, 2023 | 44.10 | 47.60 | -3.50 |
| Aug 31, 2023 | 48.70 | 44.10 | +4.60 |
| Jul 31, 2023 | 42.80 | 43.30 | -0.50 |
| Jun 30, 2023 | 41.50 | 44.00 | -2.50 |
| May 31, 2023 | 40.40 | 47.00 | -6.60 |
| Apr 28, 2023 | 48.60 | 43.50 | +5.10 |
| Mar 31, 2023 | 43.80 | 43.40 | +0.40 |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 43.60 | 45.00 | -1.40 |
| Jan 31, 2023 | 44.30 | 45.00 | -0.70 |
| Dec 30, 2022 | 44.90 | 40.00 | +4.90 |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 37.20 | 47.00 | -9.80 |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 45.20 | 47.00 | -1.80 |
| Sep 30, 2022 | 45.70 | 51.80 | -6.10 |
| Aug 31, 2022 | 52.20 | 52.00 | +0.20 |
Key point: Chicago PMI is not a national, government, or ISM Manufacturing PMI release. It is a private Chicago-area survey by MNI with ISM-Chicago, shown alongside the national index for comparison. The Barometer name is a trademark of ISM-Chicago.
