This indicator measures the rate at which consumers and businesses expect prices to rise in the future. It is a key forward-looking metric that central banks use to gauge the risk of an inflation spiral. High expectations can lead to actual inflation as workers demand higher wages and firms raise prices in anticipation of higher costs.
Derived from surveys asking respondents about their price outlook over the next 1 to 5 years, often expressed as a percentage.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 3.20 | 3.40 | -0.20 |
| Feb 20, 2026 | 3.30 | 3.40 | -0.10 |
| Feb 6, 2026 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 0.00 |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3.30 | 3.40 | -0.10 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 4.20 | 4.10 | +0.10 |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 3.20 | 3.40 | -0.20 |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.70 | -0.20 |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 4.70 | 4.60 | +0.10 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3.90 | 3.70 | +0.20 |
| Oct 10, 2025 | 3.70 | — | — |
| Sep 26, 2025 | 3.70 | 3.90 | -0.20 |
| Sep 12, 2025 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 0.00 |
| Aug 29, 2025 | 3.50 | 3.90 | -0.40 |
| Aug 15, 2025 | 4.90 | 4.40 | +0.50 |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.40 | +0.10 |
| Jul 18, 2025 | 4.40 | 5.00 | -0.60 |
| Jun 27, 2025 | 5.00 | 5.10 | -0.10 |
| Jun 13, 2025 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 |
| May 30, 2025 | 6.60 | 7.30 | -0.70 |
| May 16, 2025 | 7.30 | — | — |
| Apr 25, 2025 | 6.50 | 6.70 | -0.20 |
| Apr 11, 2025 | 6.70 | — | — |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 4.10 | 3.90 | +0.20 |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3.90 | — | — |
| Feb 21, 2025 | 4.30 | 4.30 | 0.00 |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3.30 | 3.20 | +0.10 |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3.20 | 3.30 | -0.10 |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 3.30 | 2.80 | +0.50 |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2.90 | 2.70 | +0.20 |
| Nov 22, 2024 | 3.20 | 3.10 | +0.10 |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2.70 | 2.90 | -0.20 |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 2.90 | 2.70 | +0.20 |
| Sep 13, 2024 | 2.70 | 2.80 | -0.10 |
| Aug 30, 2024 | 2.80 | 2.90 | -0.10 |
| Jul 12, 2024 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0.00 |
| Jun 28, 2024 | 3.00 | 3.30 | -0.30 |
| May 10, 2024 | 3.50 | 3.20 | +0.30 |
| Apr 26, 2024 | 3.20 | 3.10 | +0.10 |
| Mar 15, 2024 | 3.00 | 3.10 | -0.10 |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 3.00 | 2.90 | +0.10 |
| Feb 2, 2024 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0.00 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | 3.80 | 3.20 | -0.60 ↓ |
| Feb 6, 2026 | 3.40 | 3.30 | -0.10 ↓ |
