Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims is the headline of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims report from the Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration (ETA). An initial claim is a new filing after separation from an employer, seeking benefits under state or federal civilian and veteran programs. Coverage is a weekly census of state records across 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, not a survey sample. It counts only insured unemployed workers, so it never equals total unemployment or the monthly household survey jobless rate.

The reference week always ends Saturday, and the report is embargoed until 8:30 A.M. Eastern each Thursday unless a federal holiday shifts it. Each release prints initial claims adjusted and unadjusted, plus continued claims with rates, moving averages, and year-ago comparisons. It also shows federal civilian and veteran filings, Extended Benefits trigger states, and state tables with industry comments. The advance count by paying state is revised the next week by residence, and history is revised each January with new factors.

New filings rise when layoffs spread and fall when layoffs ease, with seasonal patterns and program coverage shaping the weekly count.

• Seasonally adjusted initial claims: the headline flow of new filings after correction for normal seasonal patterns.
• Unadjusted initial claims: the raw administrative count used to compute the adjustment and judge seasonal expectations.
• 4-week moving average: the mean of the last 4 adjusted weeks, damping the weekly volatility noted in the release notes.
• Continued claims and insured rate: insured workers still claiming and their share of covered jobs, confirming the economy's direction.
• Federal filings and Extended Benefits: former federal civilian and veteran claims, plus states where automatic extensions trigger.
• State detail: largest state moves with state-supplied industry reasons, showing geographic and sectoral drivers.

The week ending March 28, 2020 reported 6,648,000 adjusted initial claims, up 3,341,000, the highest in the adjusted series history. Unadjusted claims totaled 5,823,917, up 99.4%, while seasonal patterns had expected a 0.8% decrease, the model failure behind the later switch to additive factors. The 4-week average rose to 2,612,000, smoothing the spike, and insured unemployment reached 3,029,000, its highest since July 6, 2013. Nearly every state cited COVID-19, led by accommodation and food services layoffs.

1. Collect: each state office reports weekly counts on Form ETA 538, an advance weekly report, by paying state. The same counts are re-reported next week on Form ETA 539 by residence for revision.
2. Unadjusted total: sum state counts for the Saturday-ending week to get actual claims. Toy example: 200,000 plus 15,000 plus 5,000 equals 220,000.
3. Seasonal adjustment: apply the yearly factors supplied by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to remove normal seasonal patterns. Since September 2020 the factors are additive and reviewed each January; a toy factor of minus 12,000 turns 220,000 into 208,000.
4. 4-week moving average: average the last 4 adjusted weeks: MA4 equals the sum divided by 4. Toy prior weeks of 214,000, 210,000 and 212,000 plus 208,000 give 211,000.
5. Insured unemployment rate: divide adjusted insured unemployment by covered employment, or jobs covered by insurance, and multiply by 100. Toy insured unemployment of 1,700,000 over 150,000,000 jobs equals 1.13%, published as 1.1%.