The 30-Year TIPS Auction is a Treasury department event where the U.S. government sells 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. These securities are unique because their principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Investors use these auctions to hedge against long-term inflation risks and to secure a real rate of return. The auction results, particularly the high yield and the bid-to-cover ratio, are closely watched by economists to gauge long-term inflation expectations in the market.
The auction is conducted via a Dutch auction process where competitive and non-competitive bids are submitted. The final interest rate is determined by the highest yield at which the total amount of securities offered can be sold.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | 2.97 | — | — |
| Feb 19, 2026 | 2.47 | — | — |
| Aug 21, 2025 | 2.65 | — | — |
| Feb 20, 2025 | 2.40 | — | — |
| Aug 22, 2024 | 2.06 | — | — |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2.20 | — | — |
The latest reading is 1.3 standard deviations above the mean.
