The Year-over-Year Inflation Rate measures the percentage change in the price of a basket of goods and services compared to the same month in the previous year. It is the primary gauge of purchasing power and is used by central banks to determine monetary policy and interest rate adjustments. High inflation often leads to tighter monetary policy, while low inflation may prompt stimulus measures.
It is calculated by comparing the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the CPI value from one year ago. The formula used is ((Current CPI - Past CPI) / Past CPI) x 100.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1.00 | 1.10 | -0.10 |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 0.90 | 1.10 | -0.20 |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Sep 29, 2025 | 0.60 | 0.50 | +0.10 |
| Aug 22, 2025 | 0.30 | 0.00 | +0.30 |
| Jul 23, 2025 | 0.00 | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| Jun 19, 2025 | -0.20 | 0.50 | -0.70 |
| May 22, 2025 | 0.50 | 0.60 | -0.10 |
| Apr 22, 2025 | 0.80 | 0.00 | +0.80 |
| Mar 20, 2025 | -0.20 | -0.10 | -0.10 |
| Feb 21, 2025 | -0.20 | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| Jan 22, 2025 | -0.40 | 2.40 | -2.80 |
| Dec 17, 2024 | -0.20 | 0.10 | -0.30 |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 0.20 | 0.10 | +0.10 |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 0.60 | 2.80 | -2.20 |
| Sep 20, 2024 | 1.80 | 2.50 | -0.70 |
| Aug 22, 2024 | 2.40 | — | — |
| Jul 19, 2024 | 2.80 | 3.10 | -0.30 |
| May 22, 2024 | 3.40 | 3.00 | +0.40 |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2.70 | — | — |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 3.90 | 4.40 | -0.50 |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 4.30 | 8.00 | -3.70 |
| Feb 2, 2024 | 8.70 | 6.10 | +2.60 |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 9.00 | 8.70 | +0.30 |
| Nov 23, 2023 | 8.70 | 8.90 | -0.20 |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 8.70 | 7.50 | +1.20 |
| Sep 20, 2023 | 7.70 | 7.10 | +0.60 |
| Aug 24, 2023 | 7.10 | 6.80 | +0.30 |
The latest reading is within its usual range, less than one standard deviation from the mean.
